Green Party faithful are crossing their fingers and staying clear of black cats this weekend, as leader Elizabeth May waits to see whether she'll be her party's first ever Canadian MP.

May is running in Saanich-Gulf Islands against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn. He won the last election by 2,625 votes, but May seems confident she can win it.

"There's no question that the momentum is here, in Saanich-Gulf Islands. What a tremendous show of support tonight to make history by electing Canada's first Green to parliament," May told a crowd of 800 supporters in Sidney on Wednesday.

The gathering of cheering Greens was treated to a musical ode to their leader, sung by Bill Henderson, the lead singer of the 1980s band Chilliwack. The song was penned with the help of Randy Bachman, and features a rhyme-heavy refrain: "Elizabeth May, she's got a better way, so let's vote today."

May has also received a vote of confidence from a slightly more current musician as well; Nelly Furtado endorsed the party leader in a tweet, saying she believed the Greens will keep the Gulf Islands "gorgeous."

The party thinks May could finally make her historic breakthrough on the West Coast. Polls conducted by the party on April 18 and 19 showed May in the lead with 45-per-cent support from decided voters, ahead of Lunn's 38 per cent.

But pollsters are skeptical.

"I'd be incredibly surprised if she's able to pull it off in Saanich," Mario Canseco of Angus Reid Public Opinion told ctvbc.ca.

May faces a tough opponent in Lunn and a political landscape that hasn't exactly shifted in her favour.

"She had a lot of things going for her in the 2008 election, and now she's got a lot going against her," Canseco said.

May has switched coasts from Nova Scotia since the last election, when she came in second with 32 per cent of the vote to Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay's 47 in Central Nova.

She had a boost that year from the Liberals, who opted not to run a candidate in the riding. She also got national exposure as a participant in the televised debates, a chance that was denied this time around.'

"The big thing that they have going against them is that the environment is no longer seen as an important issue for many Canadians," Canseco said.

Three years ago, Angus Reid polling showed that nearly 30 per cent of Canadians saw the environment as the number one issue facing the country. That's plummeted to about nine per cent.

Perhaps reflecting that trend, the Green Party's fortunes have fallen in B.C. in recent weeks. In late March and mid-April, Nanos Research surveys conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail showed nearly 10-per-cent support for the Green Party, but by the end of last week, they were down below four per cent.

Nationwide, on the other hand, the Greens have shown little movement throughout the election campaign. Nanos polls have shown the party hovering around the four-per-cent level since the beginning of the campaign.

Canseco believes that the surge in NDP popularity across the country, particularly with young people, is hurting the Greens.

"A lot of those young Green voters are now going to the NDP," he said.

This election could be a turning point for the Greens, who earned seven per cent of the vote in 2008.

"Anything that has them below seven per cent would be bad," Canseco said. "It will certainly call into question what the party will do from here."

While he doesn't think that poor results will be a death knell for the party, Canseco said "there will have to be a reevaluation."